Irish households have experienced sustained pressure on food budgets over recent years, with the cost of everyday groceries rising sharply. Products such as beef, butter, milk and cheese have recorded some of the fastest price increases across the European Union, leaving many consumers questioning whether international trade agreements might eventually ease the strain.
Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office underline the scale of these increases. According to CSO data, the retail price of beef has risen by 44% over the past five years and by 24% in the last year alone. Dairy products show a similar pattern, with butter and milk prices increasing by around 45% over five years. Over the past 12 months, butter prices rose by 10%, while milk prices increased by 5%.
These increases translate directly to the weekly shop. The average price of a kilogram of diced beef has climbed by over €4 in five years, while the cost of sirloin steak has risen by more than €5 between late 2024 and 2025. Two litres of whole milk now cost around 73c more than five years ago, and the price of Irish cheddar cheese has increased by over 60c per kilogram in the same period. Overall, food prices rose by 4.2% in the year to November 2025, outpacing the wider inflation rate.
Against this backdrop, attention has turned to the proposed EU Mercosur trade agreement. The deal would allow greater imports of agricultural products such as beef, sugar, honey and soybeans from Mercosur countries, many of which have seen notable price inflation within the EU.
However, expectations of rapid price relief may be misplaced. Researchers note that the agreement will be phased in gradually, meaning short-term changes at supermarket tills are unlikely. Dr Julian Worley of the University of Galway has highlighted that, within the first year, consumers are unlikely to see meaningful differences in pricing. Instead, any impact would emerge over a longer horizon.
One possible effect may be increased product choice rather than lower prices. While Irish beef prices are expected to remain broadly stable, concerns have been raised about standards. If environmental, labour and food quality protections are not rigorously enforced, cheaper imports could emerge, though potentially at the expense of quality and sustainability. This presents a trade-off that policymakers and consumers will need to weigh carefully.
For dairy, the outlook is even more muted. Ireland imports very little dairy produce from Mercosur countries, and experts suggest this is unlikely to change. Shipping costs, regulatory requirements and environmental compliance all limit the scope for imported dairy to undercut domestic production.
In summary, while the Mercosur agreement may influence the Irish food market over time, it is unlikely to deliver quick or significant reductions in grocery bills. For Irish shoppers, the more realistic expectation is gradual change, increased choice and continued scrutiny of how trade policy aligns with food quality, sustainability and value for money.
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and is intended for general guidance only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy at the time of publication, details may change and errors may occur. This content does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek appropriate professional guidance before making decisions. Neither the publisher nor the authors accept liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Practice Hook